Wednesday, May 21, 2008

1.7% Chance



For those unaware of how the NBA Draft Lottery actually works, I will bring you up to speed:

To prevent teams from "tanking" their season to guarantee their rights to the #1 pick in the draft, the NBA instead awards ping pong balls to the worst teams in order of their season record. This drawing is done privately ahead of time and odds are reflected to show what chance a team has due to how many balls they have in the lottery.

For the 2008 draft, the odds were as follows to receive the top pick:
Heat - 25%
Sonics -19.9%
Wolves - 13.8%
Grizzlies - 13.7%
Knicks - 7.6%
Clippers - 7.5%
Bucks - 4.3%
Bobcats - 2.8%
Bulls - 1.7%

The Bulls were the 9th worst team in the league and held a small, almost insignificant chance of landing the top pick. During the NBA Draft Lottery, they select backwards, building up to #1. The ninth spot came and went. Then several more spots were gone until they reached the top 3 and the Chicago Bulls were yet to be named.
The 3rd pick in the draft was awarded to the Sonics
The 2nd pick in the draft was awarded to the Heat (the worst record in the NBA)
When that was said, the only team left was the Chicago Bulls who shocked the sports world and showed what 1.7% really meant.




A quote ringing in my head all day comes from the memorable comedy Dumb & Dumber.
As Lloyd asks Mary to define the chances of them getting together, Mary replies "not good."

Lloyd: You mean, not good like one out of a hundred?
Mary: I'd say more like one out of a million

*pause*
Lloyd: So you're telling me there's a chance...